The Houston Texans came to town with arguably the best defense in the NFL. They went home with that argument still in place, but a new team has entered the best defense chat.
Your New England Patriots.
In a mostly ugly, turnover-filled game, the Patriots defense was the best unit of the night, holding the Texans to 16 points despite great field position because of Patriots turnovers.
Mike Vrabel is now 2-0 with the Patriots in the playoffs with the 28-16 victory (not to far from Old Grumbly’s 27-12 prediction last week). His team remained poised despite turnovers and a ferocious Houston front four. The game was never really in doubt after the second quarter saw the Patriots went up 21-10.
Houston scored 20 points or fewer 9 times during the regular season, going 4-5. In games where they scored 21 or more, they were 9-0 coming into this game. With a balanced game plan, the Patriots kept them safely at bay.
Drake Maye had both a terrible game and a great game at the same time. He had 4 fumbles, 2 that were lost. The first led to the only Houston touchdown drive (of 27 yards) all day. This fumble was on a pocket collapse, and Maye stepped up, gaining four yards, but was just careless with the ball. His lone interception was on a Hail Mary to end the half.
Maye also had three touchdowns against that great Houston D. The one to Stef Diggs was a bullet into traffic, and the one to Boutte to go up 28-16 might be the prettiest play you see all year.
Maye’s ceiling is MVP-caliber. His current status is still a second-year QB who makes mistakes. The stakes are higher now, so the critique will be harsh.
Will Campbell was again targeted, and attacked on the blind side. This was no regular pass rush. Still, he needs to hold his ground instead of hand-fighting in some spots. It is better to have a play blown up and end then blown up and turn it over.
McDaniels’ play-calling got aggressive in this game. The running game was struggling against Houston, no shame there, until a fourth-quarter drive where they gained 38 yards on the ground and punted. With the time that came off the clock, it effectively ended the game. Houston was tired at that point, and despite still forcing the punt, the field position swing changed the end of the game. Expect more aggression in Denver on Sunday.
The defense put together its second dominant game. C. J. Stroud looked confused from the first play, and his 4 interceptions does not tell the story. There were at least 4 others that were just dropped by the Patriots D, and 2 others that got tipped out of bounds or into the ground. They held the run game to 48 yards with 10 points coming off of two drives of 27 and 26 yards. Zach Kurr continues to dial up the pressure, and the defense rolls into Denver with a chip on their shoulder.
Stefon Diggs is a big-time money player. His 4 catches for 40 yards were all timely. He had two first downs and a key touchdown with a defender basically in his jersey. He continues to be a key piece for Maye to go to when he needs it.
Old Grumbly Divisional Playoff Predictions
Denver hosts the Patriots in what has long been a New England house of horrors. Patriots are 12-29 in Denver lifetime, with an 0-4 lifetime playoff record in the Mile-High City. In a normal year, home field would seem a formidable weapon for the Broncos.
Then, Bo Nix broke his ankle got injured on one of the last plays of the game in their own overtime win in a thriller against the Bills, 33-30. Former Patriot Jarrett Stidham steps in the the Broncos starting QB role without throwing a pass all year. Many in the national media seem to suggest that Stidham will step in and get it done.
I just don’t see a backup QB giving this defense the business. He might keep it close, but I doubt he plays at an all-world level. The Broncos have been a mediocre offense all year, relying on Nix in close and late games that the defense kept them in.
Denver’s defense was the 3rd stingiest for points in the NFL (Houston was 2nd), and has the second best run defense all year (Pats 6th). In four of their last seven games, they gave up 346 yards or more and over 400 twice (Washington and Buffalo). The defense will need at least a steady offense to keep up with Maye.
While Maye had turnovers in both playoff games, his career so far does not show he’s a turnover machine. There’s a high chance he bounces back this week, and frankly, no one has shut down the Patriots offense completely. Since their Week 2 loss against Pittsburgh (the game with the 5 turnovers), the Patriots scored at least 23 points in every game until the Wild Card game against the Chargers (another top 5 defense). If the Patriots get to 23 in this game (and they will) I expect that will be enough to beat the Broncos and advance to the franchise’s 12th Super Bowl, adding to their record.
Look for a big run from TreVeyon Henderson in this game, and a big game from Hunter Henry. I think the momentum train carries this team into the big game.
Old Grumbly Prediction
Patriots 34 – Denver 9
