Pats got it done against the Chargers 16-3. There were some surprises in this game, and some trends from mid-season that came back. Let’s break it down.
Mike Vrabel got his first win in the playoffs as Patriots head coach out of the way. The team was prepared, and other than some miscues from the offense, the team dominated the Chargers start to finish. The game was not as close as the score. Old Grumbly’s prediction that it would be the most boring of the wild card weekend games came true.
Drake Maye came out in the first half of his first playoff game, and he had plays that did not resemble the MVP case that he has made all year. The interception was off a tipped pass, but thrown into a lot of traffic. I think you will see him read through that progression this upcoming week and go to the next guy.
In the playoffs, a 70% completion is not a normal thing, windows are smaller and tighter. People used to complain about Brady throwing the ball away, or into the ground, but he avoided turnovers. In the playoffs, turnovers are the easiest way, outside of big special teams plays, for an inferior team to advance.
He also had a fumble from a sack that was a straight doorway by Will Campbell. I think we have forgotten that Campbell is a rookie left tackle. It was a good play by former Raven Odafe Oweh, who had three sacks for the game. He is a multiyear veteran from many playoff teams. Campbell will learn from this and improve.
Maye also had a bad running game supporting him for most of the first three quarters other than himself, with a ton of plays into the line. When he got into a rhythm in the second half, and they needed a touchdown, he drove right down the field.
McDaniels hopefully knocked the playoff rust off as well. Some trends from during the year popped up here, with at least 10 plays that were straight ahead runs into the line that went nowhere. While Stevenson is a big back, Henderson is a speed guy, and McDaniels needs to get him back out into space.
The defense was tremendous from start to finish. They punished Herbert through a porous o-line, sacking him 6 times. When he completed passes, talking by the Patriots limited the run after catch all night. There was no room for the Chargers, who looked lost most of the night.
One big surprise was the dominance of Milton Williams, who looked like he did during the Eagles Super Bowl run. Huge interior pushes cause every quarterback ever to move. This is an element that the Patriots have lacked in the postseason for quite a few years, even going back to the Brady years. The last player similar to this player was Vince Wilfork. If he remains healthy during this postseason, it could elevate the Patriots’ championship chances.
Stefon Diggs was quiet, with an uncharacteristic drop, and only 2 catches. I think a big part of Diggs is getting him involved early and allowing him to find his rhythm. I expect him to come out strongly against the Texans, where he played last year. Maye’s slow start also contributed to this.
Old Grumbly Divisional Playoff Predictions
Houston comes to town with one of the best defenses in the NFL, and having throttled the Pittsburgh Steelers so badly that Mike Tomlin stepped down after 18 seasons. Tomlin was a long-time Patriots foil, whose Steeler teams would talk and get crushed by the Brady-era teams. That said, he was a tremendous coach, and Pittsburgh has its work cut out finding his replacement.
The Steelers just were not that good. Yes they beat the Patriots early in Week 3 in the most annoying game of the year. One, the Pats had five terrible turnovers in that game, and the Steelers only had 203 yards of offense. In every measure other than turnovers, the Patriots dominated that game. In fact, the Patriots only had 16 turnovers all year, and 5 were in that game. That means that over 16 games, they only turned the ball over 11 times!
Houston’s defense thrives on turnovers. It had 4 defensive touchdowns, 47 sacks, and the fewest yards allowed in the NFL. They have won 10 straight games, including the regular season. Finding negative trends when a team is on a run like that is difficult. The Patriots have won 13 of their last 14, so the same applies.
When you look at how Houston gives up yards, that is where the Patriots may have an advantage. In December, both the Chiefs and the Raiders gained some yards on the ground with big chunk plays. This is where Henderson might give the Patriots the elements they need. Both the Chargers and the Cardinals had success in the air, but both relied on big chunk plays as well.
The Patriots have thrived in long plays all year, and Maye in particular is great both under pressure (he leads all NFL QBS in yds, completion percentage, touchdowns and rating) and going long. McDaniels has had a long, long playoff career, and when winning in the first round, he often moves on. I think you will see an aggressive game plan against the Texans.
Demeco Ryans has led the Texans to 3 straight playoffs, and last week was his third playoff win as a head coach. In each of the first two years, the Texans won the wild card and lost in the divisional round on the road. I think that trend holds.
The Texans offense still struggled against the Steelers for three quarters. The score was 7-6 going into the fourth, and the aforementioned Texans turnover hunters got two different touchdowns in the fourth. Stroud gave the Steelers three turnovers, and all of them were his fault. While still leading his team back to the playoffs again, Stroud has been uneven at best this year, with injuries plaguing him (his backup Davis Mills is not very good).
With the Patriots defense in prime form, and with the home crowd behind them, I don’t see Houston scoring enough to match the Patriots. With star receiver Nico Collins potentially out with a concussion, I don’t see how they get to the end zone. It will be field goal city, and that plays into the Patriots’ hands.
Old Grumbly Prediction
Patriots 27 – Houston 12
